Did Musk's politics cost Tesla a million sales? What the study found, and what has changed since

Elon Musk's political activity, from his role in the US government in early 2025 to his public statements, has been blamed for weaker Tesla sales. In late 2025, economists tried to put a number on that. Here is what the research says, and what has happened since.

What the study estimated

• Who: economists, including researchers at Yale, in a paper published through the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Period: October 2022 to April 2025.
• Finding: Tesla's US sales were an estimated 1 million to 1.26 million vehicles lower than they would otherwise have been, which the authors call a "partisan effect". Without it, sales in that period would have been 67% to 83% higher.
• Where buyers went: some likely bought electric or hybrid cars from other brands instead, whose sales grew faster in that period.

How to read it

Studies like this compare actual sales with an estimate of what would have happened otherwise, which always involves assumptions. Other factors also hurt Tesla in that period: an ageing model line-up, more competition, price cuts by rivals and changes in subsidies. The study is a serious attempt to separate those effects, but its exact numbers should be read as estimates, not as precise counts. Tesla did not publicly respond, according to the coverage.

What has changed since

Coverage of the study noted that public sentiment toward Musk improved after he shifted his public focus back to technology such as robotaxis and self-driving. In 2026, Tesla's sales have picked up again: third-quarter deliveries were 486,532, above analysts' expectations, and sales in several European countries rose strongly in September. Tesla also launched cheaper Standard versions of the Model 3 and Model Y. How much of the recovery is due to Musk's lower political profile, and how much to new products and prices, is hard to say.

Why it matters

For Tesla, Musk is both its biggest marketing asset and a brand risk. Few car companies are so closely tied to one person. That is part of why shareholders watch his public role closely, including at the upcoming meeting on December 3.