Tesla starts 'early production' of Optimus, but outside customers will have to wait until late 2027

Tesla used its third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, October 21, to give the clearest update yet on Optimus. The good news for the robot program: production has started. The less good news: the robots will not be ready for outside customers until around the end of 2027, and Tesla still has to solve problems with the hand, reliability and the AI.

What Tesla announced

In its Q3 shareholder letter, Tesla described the robots now coming off its Fremont line as the first "production-quality" bots it has built. The line sits in the space where the Model S and Model X used to be made. Tesla said it has shown that its current manufacturing process is suitable for a commercial product, while it keeps changing both the hardware and the process.

Elon Musk was careful with his words on the call. He called it "early production" and said the ramp would be slow and bumpy because Optimus is such a new kind of product.

The key numbers and dates

• Fremont line: most of the equipment for a line designed for one million robots a year has arrived.
• 20,000 a week: Musk said reaching that rate will take at least a year, possibly longer, because parts of the design are still changing.
• Outside deliveries: around the end of 2027, once the remaining issues with the AI, the electromechanical design, reliability and service life are solved. Musk put that at about a year of work.
• First customers: most likely industrial companies with dangerous or repetitive work, or jobs that run around the clock. Robots for homes come later, as volume grows.
• AI5 chip: planned for Optimus around April 2027, with roughly ten times the computing power of the current AI4 computer.
• Texas: CFO Vaibhav Taneja said construction has started on a factory in Austin meant to build far more robots than Fremont.

Still the hand

When an analyst from Deutsche Bank asked what still needed work, Musk named dexterity, and in particular the fingers. A hand has to grip delicate objects, protect its sensors and survive constant wear, and unlike a human hand it cannot repair itself. A member of the Optimus engineering team added that most of the robot has now settled into a design that works reasonably well, but that the custom gears in the hand, which carry much of the load, are still being developed.

Musk also said the robot must be durable enough that it does not wear out after a month of use. That gives an idea of how far the program still is from a product a factory would pay for.

Cost and spending

Tesla gave no unit cost for Optimus. Taneja said internal cost tracking looks good and that the cost is moving closer to the expected cost of the Cybercab, but that it is too early to say the target has been met. Spending on AI and Optimus helped push up expenses in the quarter. Net income fell 43% from a year earlier, to $787 million.

Why the date matters

Optimus timelines have moved before. In 2024, Musk said Tesla hoped to build Optimus in high volume for other companies in 2026. In January 2025, he said Tesla would build about 10,000 robots that year. Neither happened. The new target of late 2027 is about a year further out, and it depends on hardware and AI problems that are not yet solved.

At the same time, this is the first quarter in which Tesla can point to an actual production line, not just prototypes. That changes the question from whether Tesla can build humanoid robots to whether it can make them useful and reliable enough to sell.

What to watch for next

• A new video: Musk promised one within a month or two, showing Optimus doing tasks that were not pre-programmed.
• Weekly output: Tesla has not given official production figures. Any number in the Q4 letter in January would be a useful check.
• The hand: watch for signs that the gear and finger issues are solved, as that is what Musk himself called the main problem.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.