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Up to 1.3 billion SpaceX shares can be sold from today: the biggest unlock since the IPO, and why Tesla investors are watching3 min

Up to 1.3 billion SpaceX shares can be sold from today: the biggest unlock since the IPO, and why Tesla investors are watching

SpaceX ·

Two trading days after its Q3 results, SpaceX's largest lock-up release lets employees and early investors sell up to 1.3 billion shares. Here is how the schedule works, what comes next and how it ties into the Tesla merger talks.

From today, Thursday, October 22, SpaceX employees and early investors can sell up to 1.3 billion shares that have been locked up since the company's stock market debut on June 12. It is the largest single release under SpaceX's lock-up so far, and it arrives two trading days after the company's third-quarter results on Tuesday.

How the lock-up works

A lock-up stops insiders from selling shares for a period after an IPO, so the market is not flooded straight away. SpaceX's runs for 180 days, until December 8, but it opens in stages tied to the company's own results. According to a breakdown by FXStreet:

  • August: up to 912 million shares, about 20% of the locked pool, became free two trading days after the first quarterly report.
  • A conditional 10% would only have been released if the stock traded 30% above the $135 offer price. That never happened.
  • Four slices of 7%, each between 319 and 328 million shares, followed on August 20, September 9, September 24 and October 9.
  • Today: 28% of the pool, up to 1.3 billion shares, with no price condition.
  • Next: about 319 million more shares from Monday, October 26, and the remaining roughly 798 million on December 8.

Before today, roughly 22% of SpaceX's 13.2 billion shares could be traded. That rises to about 32% after this release, around 34% after October 26 and around 40% after December 8.

Musk's shares stay locked

Elon Musk's holding, up to 6.4 billion shares, is not part of this schedule. He signed a separate, longer lock-up that runs until June 12, 2027, with no early release. So none of today's selling, if there is any, comes from SpaceX's chief executive.

How the stock has behaved so far

SpaceX listed at $135 a share. It climbed above $225 in its first days of trading, later dropped to around $105, and has recently traded in the mid-$140s. Earlier releases have not automatically pushed the price down. Around the big August unlock, the stock fell 13.6% after the results, then rose 6.1% on the day the shares became free and 15.8% the day after, according to Zacks. As Zacks noted at the time, a release only makes shares eligible for sale; holders can also keep them.

Why Tesla investors care

The link is the merger talks. Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees of independent directors to look at a possible combination, TechCrunch reported on Tuesday. Musk, who is not on either committee, calls himself a conflicted party but said a merger would be a good idea, while stressing it is not guaranteed.

In any all-stock deal, the relative share prices of the two companies would set the exchange ratio. A larger free float makes SpaceX's price a more reliable measure of its value than in the first months, when fewer than 5% of shares could trade. Tesla also owns a small stake in SpaceX, from its $2 billion xAI investment that was converted into SpaceX shares.

What to watch next

  • Trading volume and price over the coming days, and again from October 26.
  • Any insider sale filings by senior SpaceX executives.
  • Progress by the two merger committees, ahead of Tesla's shareholder meeting on December 3.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

Sources (4)
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